Wednesday, April 9, 2014

My Kentucky Derby favorites (so far)

With only four more prep races to go (and, really, only the Bluegrass Stakes and Arkansas Derby this weekend are the only ones who matter), I started taking a look at the horses at the top of the leaderboard.

Right now my favorite is Intense Holiday. He came in first in the Risen Star Stakes after a photo finish with Albano (race replay here)  and second in the Louisiana Derby (race replay). He has earned some good Beyer speed figures and he has a "rally" running style- he saves some gas in his tank to come from behind in the stretch. Plus, he's ridden by Mike Smith and by now you know he's my favorite jockey!

My other favorite is Wicked Strong who came in first in the Wood Memorial (race replay here). This is another horse with a rally running style. His previous Beyers were OK, not great but it's possible he's peaking at just the right time.

Everyone is all abuzz about California Chrome. I won't deny that he is one helluva race horse but I don't think he's the Derby winner. He's a speed horse and speed horses typically don't win the Derby. He's from California and a Cali-bred horse hasn't won the Derby since 1962. However, with the right post position he could win it!

The more I look at the prep races and paste performances, the more my head starts to spin and I realize I might as well throw darts and pick my horses that way!

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